Inflation Projection and the Associated
Uncertainty Interval
| | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
| Target | | 2.5 | | | | 2.5 | | | | 2.5 | |
| Actual/ Projected**(%) | 8.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| constant taxes* | 8.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Uncertainty Interval (%) | - | - | - | ±0.5 | ±0.9 | ±1.4 | ±2.0 | ±2.3 | ±2.5 | ±2.6 | ±2.7 |
* Annual inflation rate at constant taxes excludes the first round impact of the changes in the VAT rate, excise duties and some non-tax fees and charges
** end of period
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
Note: The uncertainty interval associated with the inflation projection is based on forecast errors, derived from comparing actual data with model based projections made during 2005 - 2022. For more details see Constructing the uncertainty interval.
The NBR's quarterly projections require a structured forecasting framework.